Climate Variability and Rice-Farming Livelihoods: Linking Seasonal Temperature and Rainfall to Agricultural Productivity and Economic Resilience
Keywords:
agricultural shocks, climate variability, net revenue, rice productivity, seasonal rainfallAbstract
The livelihoods of rice farmers are vulnerable to the variability of the seasons in the climate, as fluctuations in temperature, rainfall, and production shocks can impact agricultural productivity and farm economic results. This study assessed seasonal climate profiles, agricultural shock exposure, rice productivity, and their associations with farm net revenue. The data obtained were secondary data, with a quantitative observational approach, and the number of households that were selected after data preparation was 1115 households. Summer and monsoon temperatures and precipitation were used to represent seasonal climate, and mean rice yield over 2021 and 2022 were used to represent rice productivity. Welch tests, climate-profile comparisons, and HC3 robust ordinary least-squares regression were applied. Rice productivity differed significantly across four climate profiles. Households experiencing agricultural shocks had mean yields 192.76 kg/acre lower than unexposed households (95% CI: −243.40 to −142.13; p < 0.001), while irregular-rainfall exposure corresponded to a 127.55 kg/acre lower mean yield (95% CI: −211.96 to −43.14; p = 0.003). The net revenue was positively associated with mean rice yield (β = 0.152, p < 0.001), while agricultural shock exposure was negatively associated with net revenue (β = −54.491, p < 0.001). The results show that variation in the seasonal climate conditions and agricultural shocks are linked to variations in rice productivity as well as in the economic performance of the farms. Stability in yield supply and preparedness to cope with agricultural shocks can help to achieve more stable rice-farming livelihoods.
References
1.Aboaba, K. (2020). Economic efficiency of rice farming a stochastic frontier analysis approach. Journal of Agribusiness and rural development, 58(4), 423-435.
2.Addison, M., Ohene-Yankyera, K., Acheampong, P. P., & Wongnaa, C. A. (2022). The impact of uptake of selected agricultural technologies on rice farmers’ income distribution in Ghana. Agriculture & Food Security, 11(1), 2.
3.Bandumula, N. (2018). Rice production in Asia: Key to global food security. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, India Section B: Biological Sciences, 88(4), 1323-1328.
4.Fahad, S., Adnan, M., Hassan, S., Saud, S., Hussain, S., Wu, C., ... & Huang, J. (2019a). Rice responses and tolerance to high temperature. In Advances in rice research for abiotic stress tolerance (pp. 201-224). Woodhead Publishing.
5.Fahad, S., Adnan, M., Noor, M., Arif, M., Alam, M., Khan, I. A., ... & Wang, D. (2019b). Major constraints for global rice production. In Advances in rice research for abiotic stress tolerance (pp. 1-22). Woodhead Publishing.
6.Fukagawa, N. K., & Ziska, L. H. (2019). Rice: Importance for global nutrition. Journal of nutritional science and vitaminology, 65(Supplement), S2-S3.
7.Hussain, S., Huang, J., Huang, J., Ahmad, S., Nanda, S., Anwar, S., ... & Zhang, J. (2020). Rice production under climate change: adaptations and mitigating strategies. In Environment, climate, plant and vegetation growth (pp. 659-686). Cham: Springer International Publishing.
8.Khan, A. A., & Jadaun, K. K. (2023). Estimating the potential effect of climate change on rice yield in India by considering the combined effects of temperature and rainfall. Bhartiya Krishi Anusandhan Patrika, 38(3), 284-289.
9.Kontgis, C., Schneider, A., Ozdogan, M., Kucharik, C., Tri, V. P. D., Duc, N. H., & Schatz, J. (2019). Climate change impacts on rice productivity in the Mekong River Delta. Applied Geography, 102, 71-83.
10.Kyaw, A. M. M. (2025). Climate change, adaptation, and economic outcomes in rice farming: Empirical findings from myanmar’s delta region [Dataset]. Mendeley Data. https://doi.org/10.17632/729BV86JXN.1
11.Mainuddin, M., Peña-Arancibia, J. L., Karim, F., Hasan, M. M., Mojid, M. A., & Kirby, J. M. (2022). Long-term spatio-temporal variability and trends in rainfall and temperature extremes and their potential risk to rice production in Bangladesh. PLoS Climate, 1(3), e0000009.
12.Miah, M. M., Kibria, M. G., Aspy, N. N., & Hossain, K. (2025). Asymmetric behavior of average temperature and rainfall on rice production in Bangladesh. Energy Nexus, 18, 100429.
13.Mohapatra, P. K., & Sahu, B. B. (2021). Importance of rice as human food. In Panicle architecture of rice and its relationship with grain filling (pp. 1-25). Cham: Springer International Publishing.
14.Mohidem, N. A., Hashim, N., Shamsudin, R., & Che Man, H. (2022). Rice for food security: Revisiting its production, diversity, rice milling process and nutrient content. Agriculture, 12(6), 741.
15.Rahman, M. A., Kang, S., Nagabhatla, N., & Macnee, R. (2017). Impacts of temperature and rainfall variation on rice productivity in major ecosystems of Bangladesh. Agriculture & Food Security, 6(1), 10.
16.Rao, A. N., Wani, S. P., Ramesha, M. S., & Ladha, J. K. (2017). Rice production systems. In Rice production worldwide (pp. 185-205). Cham: Springer International Publishing.
17.Rezvi, H. U. A., Tahjib‐Ul‐Arif, M., Azim, M. A., Tumpa, T. A., Tipu, M. M. H., Najnine, F., ... & Brestič, M. (2023). Rice and food security: Climate change implications and the future prospects for nutritional security. Food and Energy Security, 12(1), e430.
18.Saud, S., Wang, D., Fahad, S., Alharby, H. F., Bamagoos, A. A., Mjrashi, A., ... & Hassan, S. (2022). Comprehensive impacts of climate change on rice production and adaptive strategies in China. Frontiers in Microbiology, 13, 926059.
19.Singh, K. M., Ahmad, N., Pandey, V. V., Kumari, T., & Singh, R. (2021). Growth performance and profitability of rice production in India: an assertive analysis.
20.Singh, S., & Awais, M. (2019). Climate variability and rice production in North India: a review. Economic Affairs, 64(2), 425-429.
21.Tan, B. T., Fam, P. S., Firdaus, R. R., Tan, M. L., & Gunaratne, M. S. (2021). Impact of climate change on rice yield in Malaysia: a panel data analysis. Agriculture, 11(6), 569.
22.Tanjung, A. M., & Muhafidin, D. (2023). Rice Import Policy: Assessing the Income of Farmers from Agriculture in Indonesia. AgBioForum, 25(2), 129-136.
23.Zhu, S., Tong, W., Li, H., Li, K., Xu, W., & Liang, B. (2025). Temporal variations in rice water requirements and the impact of effective rainfall on irrigation demand: Strategies for sustainable rice cultivation. Water, 17(5), 656.
